Every prediction is powered by a composite score built from six independent sources:
ELO Rating (32%) — World Football ELO ratings (eloratings.net), calibrated to April 2026. Accounts for match results, margin of victory, and opponent strength over time.
FIFA World Rankings (23%) — Official FIFA ranking points as of April 1, 2026.
Betting Market Odds (23%) — Implied probability from BetMGM and Bet365 tournament winner odds (April 2026), converted from American odds.
Polymarket Crowd Prediction (9%) — Real-money prediction market with $321M+ in trading volume as of April 19, 2026. Reflects aggregated expert and public sentiment.
Recent Form (5%) — Results from the March 2026 international window.
Head-to-Head History (8%) — Historical win rate against tournament-level opposition, last 10 years.
Each team result is simulated 5,000 times, randomising match outcomes based on composite win probabilities. This generates a realistic distribution — showing how often a team reaches each stage, not just a single number.
The bracket follows the official 2026 FIFA schedule (verified against NBC Sports and ESPN). Elimination is correctly modelled — a team that loses in Round of 32 cannot appear in Round of 16 predictions.
These predictions are statistical estimates. They cannot account for injuries, squad rotation, tactical decisions, referee decisions, or penalty shootout randomness. The further into the tournament, the less reliable the forecast. These are statistical and experimental projections only. Model estimates suggest roughly 60–67% accuracy per match under ideal conditions — comparable to professional quantitative models, but not guaranteed.
This is not betting advice. Never make financial decisions based solely on this tool.
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Prediction data comes from publicly available sources including FIFA, eloratings.net, BetMGM, Bet365, and Polymarket. No personal data is sent to these sources.
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