WC26 Predictor
FIFA World Cup 2026
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Get one reminder before kickoff and alerts when their projected route changes.
Every prediction is powered by a composite score built from six independent sources:
ELO Rating (32%) — World Football ELO ratings (eloratings.net), calibrated to April 2026. Accounts for match results, margin of victory, and opponent strength over time.
FIFA World Rankings (23%) — Official FIFA ranking points as of April 1, 2026.
Betting Market Odds (23%) — Implied probability from BetMGM, DraftKings, and CBS Sports tournament winner odds (May 28, 2026), converted from American odds.
Polymarket Crowd Prediction (9%) — Real-money prediction market with $271M+ in trading volume as of May 28, 2026. Reflects aggregated expert and public sentiment.
Recent Form (5%) — Results from the March 2026 international window.
Head-to-Head History (8%) — Historical win rate against tournament-level opposition, last 10 years.
Each team result is simulated 10,000 times, randomising match outcomes based on composite win probabilities. This generates a realistic distribution — showing how often a team reaches each stage, not just a single number.
The bracket follows the official 2026 FIFA schedule (verified against NBC Sports and ESPN). Elimination is correctly modelled — a team that loses in Round of 32 cannot appear in Round of 16 predictions.
These predictions are statistical estimates. They cannot account for injuries, squad rotation, tactical decisions, referee decisions, or penalty shootout randomness. The further into the tournament, the less reliable the forecast. These are statistical model projections only. Estimates suggest roughly 60–65% projection accuracy per match under ideal conditions — not guaranteed, and subject to real-world unpredictability.
This is not betting advice. Never make financial decisions based solely on this tool.
If you sign up for predictions updates, we collect your email address and up to two favourite teams. This is stored in Google Forms / Google Sheets and is used only to send waitlist and prediction updates.
We use basic analytics to understand site traffic and product usage. If you sign up for prediction updates, we collect your email address and favourite team through Google Forms / Google Sheets. We do not sell or share your personal data with any third party.
Your browser's localStorage may be used to remember your email submission so we don't ask twice. No sensitive data is stored locally.
Prediction data comes from publicly available sources including FIFA, eloratings.net, BetMGM, Bet365, and Polymarket. No personal data is sent to these sources.
To request data deletion or for any privacy questions, contact us via the Contact section.
WC26 Predictor is an unofficial independent prediction and planning tool. It is not affiliated with FIFA, the World Cup, national teams, venues, ticketing platforms, or betting operators.
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. They are not guarantees. Users should make their own decisions and should not treat the site as professional betting, gambling, financial, ticketing, travel, or legal advice.
Ticket, venue, date, and kickoff information may change. Always verify important details, ticket availability, prices, entry rules, and travel plans with official FIFA, venue, and ticketing sources before acting.
WC26 Predictor is not responsible for betting losses, ticket purchases, travel decisions, missed events, pricing changes, schedule changes, or other actions taken based on information shown on the site.
For feedback, bug reports, data corrections, partnerships, or media enquiries:
If you spot a schedule, venue, or prediction error, please include the specific match or team and what you believe is incorrect.
Predictions are based on:
• base team quality
• attack/defense balance
• FIFA/world ranking signal
• group difficulty
• chance to finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd
• likely Round of 32 opponent pool
• likely Round of 16 route
• venue/travel context where available
• verified match results
• controlled form updates after review
• 10,000 seeded simulations
This is a probability model, not a guarantee.